Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
